The Locksmith — Sep 20

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE The Locksmith​

Tickets for this window. Three plays off the board. Side and total sit together when they belong on the same game.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM ET · DraftKings
Carolina Panthers +2.5 3-Unit Primary
Over 43.5 1-Unit Total
**The Locksmith's 3-Unit Primary Play**

Gimme the Panthers getting the points in the dome. Atlanta's got serious problems with Penix out and Lindstrom questionable with the concussion - that offensive line protection could crumble. Carolina catches a break with Coker active after that ankle scare, giving them a full receiving corps. Both squads are working on standard rest, so no edge there, but I'm grabbing these points while the number sits under a field goal. DraftKings has this one right at the key number, and I'm riding with the dog.
The Locksmith here with your Sunday afternoon action from the Georgia Dome. Both squads are coming in on a full week's rest, so conditioning ain't gonna be no factor in this one. Panthers got Jalen Coker back healthy after practicing full Friday, while the Falcons are dealing with some real question marks - Penix is definitely out and they got two key guys listed questionable in Deablo and Lindstrom. Indoor conditions at Mercedes-Benz mean we're looking at a controlled environment with no weather variables slowing down the offense.

Take the OVER 43.5 for one unit.

New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM ET · DraftKings
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 2-Unit Standard
Over 45.5 1-Unit Total
The Locksmith here with your play for Sunday afternoon at the Bank. Baltimore's getting seven full days to prepare at home while the Saints roll in on the same rest - no edge there. Weather's cooperating at 78 and mostly cloudy, so we're playing straight-up football with no elements to worry about. Ravens are laying 8.5 at -375 on the moneyline, and even with a couple guys out for Baltimore, this number tells you everything about how Vegas sees this matchup. Lay the points with the Ravens for 2 Units - this spread's got value written all over it.
The Locksmith says take the OVER 45.5, kid. Both squads got a full week to heal up and scheme, which means fresh legs and clean playbooks. New Orleans gets Olave active and Young's expected to suit up despite the calf - that's weapons on the field. Ravens playing at home in M&T with decent weather, mostly cloudy at 78 degrees, no wind or rain to gum up the works. Lay the unit on points being scored.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
1:00 PM ET · DraftKings
Cincinnati Bengals +124 1-Unit Flyer
**THE LOCKSMITH'S 1-UNIT FLYER**

The Texans are catching bad breaks with Collins sitting out for two games with that hamstring, and now they're scrambling by elevating Bond off the practice squad. Meanwhile, Burrow should be good to go despite the back issue—they wouldn't have him out there if he wasn't ready to sling it. Houston's also got Ingram out with the groin and he's looking at missing Week 3 too, which thins out their depth chart. I'll take the Bengals getting better than a field goal at +124—that's value on a team with their franchise quarterback ready to play.

**1-UNIT ON CINCINNATI +124**

VAULT STANDINGS
5-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
3-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
2-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
1-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
Total: 12-0 (+21.82 U)

HIGH ROLLER SLIP
The phone's been quiet so far today.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE The Locksmith​

Tickets for this window. Three plays off the board. Side and total sit together when they belong on the same game.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
1:02 PM ET · DraftKings
New England Patriots -16.5 3-Unit Primary
Over 28.5 1-Unit Total
**THE LOCKSMITH'S PLAY**

Listen up, street - this pick's deader than disco and I'm eating every penny of this three-unit disaster. The Pats are sitting on a measly seven points in the fourth quarter at Gillette, and that 16.5 number might as well be Mount Everest right now. They've got Woodson and Jones sitting in street clothes on the sideline with bum shoulders, while Pittsburgh's got Dowdle back in action after halftime nursing that toe. The total's set at 28.5 and we ain't even gonna sniff that combined - this game's uglier than a plaid tuxedo at prom. Grab your money and run the other way, because The Locksmith just got worked by the bookmakers on this New England fade.
The Locksmith here with your Sunday morning special. New England's dropping bodies left and right - Woodson and Jones both done for the day with shoulder problems, Pettus gimpy with that ankle. Pittsburgh got Dowdle back after the break and Fautanu suits up despite the ankle. Defense getting thin means points on the board, and I like both squads finding paydirt late to push this one OVER the number. Take the Over 28.5 and cash that ticket.

New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
1:02 PM ET · DraftKings
New Orleans Saints +6.5 2-Unit Standard
Over 41.5 1-Unit Total
Look, the Saints are catching six and a half on the road at M&T Bank, and the number tells me the wise guys got their money down early. Baltimore's laying nearly eight-to-one on the moneyline which screams trap—the books want you pounding that favorite like it's free money. Both squads are working on short rest coming off September 20th games, so nobody's got a conditioning edge here. Take the points with New Orleans and fade the public chalk.
The Locksmith here with your Sunday afternoon special. Ravens laying 6.5 at home with a 41.5 total, and I'm hammering that OVER for a unit. Baltimore's got Stanley nursing a toe and Simpson dealing with groin issues - that offensive line situation could slow their march but won't stop points from hitting the board. New Orleans loses Emerson with a shoulder problem during this game, and that secondary weakness should open things up even more. Game's at M&T Bank Stadium with both teams on zero rest, which means sloppy defense and big plays.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
1:02 PM ET · DraftKings
Philadelphia Eagles +101 1-Unit Flyer
**The Locksmith's 1-Unit Flyer**

Eagles +101 at Tennessee, 1:02 PM ET kickoff at Nissan Stadium. Tennessee's secondary is hurting bad with Flott sidelined, forcing Robinson into a starting role at corner alongside Taylor—that's a makeshift situation Philly can exploit. The Eagles got Barkley back in the third quarter after his shoulder scare, and Dalton's suited up as backup insurance. Both clubs working on zero days rest since September 20, but I'll take the plus money on the visitors with Tennessee's banged-up defensive backfield.

VAULT STANDINGS
5-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
3-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
2-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
1-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
Total: 12-0 (+21.82 U)

HIGH ROLLER SLIP
The phone's been quiet so far today.

 

[The Locksmith]

SPORTSMAFIA SYNDICATE The Locksmith​

Tickets for this window. Three plays off the board. Side and total sit together when they belong on the same game.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM ET · DraftKings
Dallas Cowboys -16.5 3-Unit Primary
Over 57.5 1-Unit Total
Listen up, degenerates. This line's already cooked - game's in the 4th quarter at 2:00 remaining, so I'm too late to the window on this one. Daniels got knocked out with a bum elbow, which woulda been the whole ballgame for laying the points with Dallas. Durant and Locke are done for the Cowboys too, but losing your starting quarterback versus some defensive pieces ain't even close to the same math. The indoor setup at Jerry World takes weather outta play, but none of that matters when the clock's already running down and I can't get this ticket stamped.
Look, the total's sitting at 57.5 and we got ourselves a shootout brewing in Jerry's Palace. Both squads just got bodies dropping left and right - Daniels is out with that elbow, Dallas missing Durant and Locke in the secondary. With defenses getting depleted mid-game and both offenses already exploiting the matchups, this number's gonna sail OVER. The handicappers on Seventh Avenue been whispering about the soft Dallas secondary all week, and now they're even thinner.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
8:20 PM ET · DraftKings
Kansas City Chiefs -6.0 2-Unit Standard
Over 46.5 1-Unit Total
**THE LOCKSMITH'S PLAY**
**2-Unit Standard: Chiefs -6.0**

Listen up, people. The Chiefs got their two big dogs back in the lineup tonight - Chris Jones nursing that calf and Delane playing through the shoulder. Arrowhead under the lights at 71 degrees, that's football weather right there. The Colts are down some bodies with Giddens and their backup QB situation looking thin, while KC's coming off six days rest and staying sharp. Lay the number with the home team - this one cashes before the fourth quarter.

*The Locksmith*
The Locksmith here, and I'm pounding the OVER 46.5 in this Sunday night special at Arrowhead. Both squads are coming in fresh - Chiefs with six days rest, Colts with seven - which means the engines are tuned and ready to light up the scoreboard. Chris Jones and Mansoor Delane are both active for KC, so the defense ain't handicapped, but that just means this game flows fast without stoppages. Weather's a beautiful 71 and cloudy, perfect conditions for the offenses to cook, and under those Arrowhead lights, points come in bunches.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
4:25 PM ET · DraftKings
Over 38.5 1-Unit Total
The Locksmith here, and I'm pounding the OVER 38.5 in this NFC West scrap at State Farm Stadium. Both squads are battling the injury bug - Arizona's got Melton and Wilson shuffling in and out, while Seattle's dealing with Price and Pili getting knocked around. When defenses are depleted and bodies are dropping mid-game, offenses find running room and throwing lanes. Indoor venue means no weather excuses - just pure offensive firepower with compromised secondaries trying to hang on.

**PLAY: OVER 38.5 (1 Unit)**

VAULT STANDINGS
5-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
3-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
2-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
1-Unit: 0-0 (+0.00 U)
Total: 12-0 (+21.82 U)

HIGH ROLLER SLIP
The phone's been quiet so far today.